European Intelligence Contradicts Trump: Iran's Nuclear Stockpile 'Largely Intact' After US Strikes

Intelligence Reports Challenge Official Claims

European intelligence assessments are painting a starkly different picture of the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities than what President Donald Trump has been claiming. According to the Financial Times report on June 26, 2025, European officials briefed on preliminary intelligence evaluations believe that Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains largely intact following the coordinated attacks.

Two European officials familiar with the assessments told the Financial Times that the preliminary intelligence evaluation provided to European Union governments suggests Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile is mostly unchanged after the US attack on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility. This assessment indicates that Iran's 408 kilograms of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium was likely distributed across multiple locations rather than concentrated at the targeted facilities.

The European assessment directly contradicts President Trump's repeated claims that the strikes completely obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities. Trump has maintained on his Truth Social platform that nothing was removed from the Fordow facility, arguing that moving such materials would be too time-consuming, dangerous, and physically challenging. He also claimed that vehicles spotted at the facility were involved in concrete work rather than uranium removal operations.

The Scale and Impact of Military Operations

The military campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure began on June 13, 2025, with Israeli strikes under Operation Rising Lion, followed by US strikes dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer on June 21. The coordinated attacks targeted three primary nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. According to official statements, the US deployed B-2 stealth bombers carrying 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs specifically designed to penetrate deeply buried facilities.

The Fordow facility, Iran's main enrichment location for producing 60% enriched uranium, was the primary target of the US operation. Located deep underground, this facility was considered one of Iran's most secure nuclear installations. The Natanz facility, housing both pilot and main fuel enrichment plants, suffered significant damage to its above-ground infrastructure, with the IAEA confirming the destruction of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant's surface components.

Despite the massive scale of the operation, a Defense Intelligence Agency report issued on Monday suggested that Iran's nuclear program has been set back only by months rather than years. The assessment found that while the strikes caused significant damage, the facilities were not totally destroyed, and Iran's centrifuges remain largely intact.

Conflicting Assessments Create Diplomatic Tensions

The divergent intelligence assessments have created tensions not only between the US and European allies but also within the American intelligence community itself. CIA Director John Ratcliffe attempted to bridge the gap by stating that the strikes caused severe damage to Iran's nuclear facilities and that key sites would need to be rebuilt over the course of years. However, he stopped short of supporting Trump's claims of a spectacular military success that obliterated the facilities.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt dismissed European claims that uranium was moved from nuclear sites, stating that the US was watching closely and saw no indication of such movement. This contradiction highlights the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of the military operation and its long-term impact on Iran's nuclear capabilities.

The European assessment suggests that Iran may have anticipated the strikes and taken precautionary measures to protect its most valuable nuclear materials. Intelligence sources indicate that the 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% - enough for more than 10 nuclear bombs if further enriched to weapons-grade 90% - was strategically distributed across multiple undisclosed locations.

Iran's Nuclear Capabilities and Regional Implications

Prior to the strikes, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran had amassed significant quantities of highly enriched uranium, with the country producing more than one Significant Quantity of 60% enriched uranium each month. The EU had warned that Iran's nuclear trajectory was pushing the Middle East toward a potential nuclear proliferation crisis, with Iranian officials becoming increasingly vocal about weapons capabilities.

The current situation has created what experts describe as a dangerous nuclear standoff in the Middle East. Iran's parliament passed legislation on June 23 suspending cooperation with the IAEA, further complicating international monitoring efforts. Meanwhile, Israel has hinted at its own nuclear capabilities, with defense officials making unprecedented public statements about tactical nuclear options.

The strikes also targeted Iran's centrifuge manufacturing capabilities, with satellite imagery showing damage to underground complexes near Haftom-e Tir Industries, a facility sanctioned by the US for its involvement in centrifuge development. However, intelligence assessments suggest that Iran's ability to produce new centrifuges has been impaired but not eliminated.

Diplomatic Efforts and Future Negotiations

Despite the military action, both the US and Iran have indicated willingness to resume nuclear negotiations. President Trump announced that the US and Iran would meet next week to discuss a potential nuclear deal, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi initially dismissed the announcement. The US plans to present Iran with three baseline demands: a total ban on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, removal of all highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and limitations on future missile production.

These demands mirror previous US positions that Iran has consistently rejected, viewing uranium enrichment and ballistic missile programs as non-negotiable sovereign rights. The current ceasefire, announced on June 23, 2025, provides a potential diplomatic window, but the conflicting intelligence assessments about the strikes' effectiveness complicate negotiations.

International observers note that the proposed incentives for Iran include sanctions relief, release of 6 billion dollars in frozen Iranian funds, and potential investment of 20-30 billion dollars in civilian nuclear energy programs. However, the fundamental disagreement over uranium enrichment rights remains a significant obstacle to any comprehensive agreement.

Global Security Implications and Community Reactions

The situation has generated intense debate within international security communities and online forums. Korean netizens on platforms like DC Inside and Nate Pann have expressed concern about the potential for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East affecting global stability. Many users worry that the incomplete destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities could accelerate rather than deter weapons development.

Military analysts on specialized forums have noted that the strikes may have created a more dangerous situation by damaging Iran's nuclear infrastructure without completely eliminating its capabilities. Some experts argue that partial destruction could push Iran toward developing a functioning weapon more quickly, as the country may feel its nuclear program is under existential threat.

The international community remains divided on the effectiveness of military action versus diplomatic engagement. While some praise the precision of the strikes in avoiding civilian casualties, others question whether the operation achieved its strategic objectives. The ongoing uncertainty about Iran's remaining nuclear capabilities continues to fuel regional tensions and complicate efforts to establish lasting peace in the Middle East.