Is Israel Betting on Regime Change in Iran? Inside Operation Rising Lion and Its Global Fallout

Operation Rising Lion: The Night the Shadow War Turned Real

Did you know that on June 13, 2025, Israel launched its most daring and direct assault on Iranian soil in history? Operation Rising Lion shattered decades of shadow warfare, as over 200 Israeli aircraft and precision munitions struck nuclear facilities, missile production centers, and the homes of top Iranian commanders. Explosions rocked Tehran, Natanz, and Tabriz, with the world watching in shock as the covert rivalry between Israel and Iran erupted into open conflict. This was not just another tit-for-tat; it was a calculated escalation, and the reverberations were felt from Jerusalem to Wall Street.

Netanyahu’s Endgame: Is Regime Change in Tehran the Real Goal?

Many analysts and community voices are now asking: Is Israel’s true objective to topple the Islamic Republic? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s public statements suggest more than just a preemptive strike against nuclear threats. He called on the Iranian people to 'rise for freedom' and unite against their 'evil and oppressive regime.' Israeli leaders may hope that these attacks will destabilize the Iranian leadership, trigger mass protests, and even lead to regime collapse. But this is a high-stakes gamble, with no guarantee of success. The Iranian regime’s power is concentrated in the hands of hardliners—especially the Revolutionary Guards—who control both the military and the economy. Even if unrest erupts, the path to real change is far from clear.

Iran’s Counterstrike and the Cycle of Escalation

Iran responded with a barrage of ballistic missiles targeting Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and key Israeli military bases. Most were intercepted, but some hit civilian areas, causing casualties and widespread fear. Both sides have now crossed red lines, and the risk of a broader regional war is higher than ever. The US and European allies scrambled to support Israel’s defenses, while urging restraint to prevent a spiral into all-out war. Community reactions on Korean platforms like Naver and Daum show a mix of fear, anger, and exhaustion—especially among expatriates caught in the crossfire.

Who Could Replace Iran’s Regime? The Divided Opposition

If Israel’s ultimate goal is regime change, who could step in if the Islamic Republic falls? Here’s where things get complicated. Iran’s opposition is deeply fragmented, divided among monarchists (like Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last Shah), leftists, ethnic groups, secular democrats, and groups like the MEK (People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran). Despite some international support, none have managed to unite or gain broad legitimacy inside Iran. The MEK, for example, is widely reviled within Iran for its past alliance with Saddam Hussein. Reza Pahlavi is popular among some diaspora Iranians but lacks a clear political blueprint. As one Naver blog noted, 'The Iranian people are ready for change, but the leaders are not.' Without a credible alternative, regime change could plunge Iran into chaos, with unpredictable consequences for the region.

Economic Shockwaves: Oil, Markets, and Global Anxiety

The strikes sent shockwaves through global markets. Oil prices spiked by over 13% for Brent crude and 11% for WTI, as investors feared disruptions to Middle Eastern supply routes. Korean financial blogs and news outlets highlighted the immediate impact on energy stocks and warned of further volatility if the conflict escalates. The uncertainty has also rattled currency markets and raised concerns about inflation worldwide. Community discussions on FM Korea and PGR21 reflect both anxiety about economic fallout and skepticism about the long-term effectiveness of military solutions.

Inside the Israeli and Iranian Communities: Fear, Defiance, and Fatigue

For ordinary people in both countries, the latest escalation has brought sleepless nights and a sense of dread. Korean residents in Israel and Iran described the terror of air raid sirens, missile interceptions, and the constant threat of further attacks. Some, like a student at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said, 'I’ve experienced Iranian attacks before, but this time the fear was different—more intense, more real.' Others expressed defiance, vowing to carry on with daily life despite the danger. Community forums on Instiz and Theqoo are filled with messages of support, calls for peace, and debates about the roots and future of the conflict.

Cultural Context: Why the Israel-Iran Conflict Matters Globally

To truly understand this crisis, foreign readers need to grasp the deep historical, religious, and geopolitical roots of the Israel-Iran rivalry. Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution transformed a once-friendly relationship into bitter enmity. Since then, both sides have fought proxy wars, conducted cyberattacks, and assassinated each other’s officials. Israel sees Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat, while Iran views Israel as a regional aggressor and oppressor of Palestinians. The latest escalation is not just about nuclear weapons—it’s about the future of the Middle East, the balance of power, and the hopes of millions for stability and freedom.

What’s Next? Scenarios and Unanswered Questions

As of June 14, 2025, the situation remains volatile and unpredictable. Israel has warned of more strikes to come, while Iran’s leaders promise harsh retaliation. The US and its allies are walking a tightrope, trying to avoid a wider war while protecting their interests. The biggest question: Can military force ever bring about real change in Iran, or will it only deepen the cycle of violence? As one Nate Pann user put it, 'No one knows where this will end, but everyone feels the danger.' The dust has yet to settle—and the world is holding its breath.