The Key Verdict of Lee Jae-myung
The Trial That Will Define Korea's Political Future
One week before the second instance ruling on electoral law violation, the South Korean political landscape is at a critical juncture. On March 26, 2025, the Seoul Appeals Court will decide whether to uphold the suspended one-year prison sentence imposed in November 2024 on opposition leader Lee Jae-myung. This verdict will not only determine his eligibility for early presidential elections but could also reconfigure the balance of power in the National Assembly.
Key Details of the Judicial Process
- **Central accusation**: Publication of false information during the 2022 elections, specifically regarding alleged irregularities in the Baekhyeon-dong development project.
- **Prosecution strategy**: Maintains its request for 2 years of prison without suspension, arguing that he "distorted the democratic will" (Chosun Daily, 03/20).
- **Lee's defense**: Presented 15 additional briefs and two requests for constitutional review, branding the process as "political persecution".
Impact on Early Presidential Elections
The judicial calendar intertwines with President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment trial. If the Constitutional Court rules on the impeachment before March a26:
1. Elections could be called for May
2. Lee would be disqualified if his conviction is upheld
3. Leadership vacuum scenario in the Democratic Party
Reactions in the Public Sphere
- **Progressive supporters**: Have organized vigils in front of the courts, calling the case "the biggest judicial farce since democratization".
- **Conservative circles**: Celebrate that "justice will finally be applied against a corrupt politician" (PPP statements to Yonhap, 03/01).
- **Online forums**: The hashtag #JusticeForLee accumulates 2.1 million posts on Twitter, while #LawIsLaw exceeds 1.8 million.
Last-Minute Strategies
Both sides have deployed extraordinary resources:
- Prosecution: 19 technical reports on "fake news propagation"
- Lee's legal team: Analysis of 7,000 pages of transcripts
- Mobilization of 132 witnesses (including former Gyeonggi officials)
Expert Forecasts
Realmeter consultancy projects four post-verdict scenarios:
| Scenario | Probability | Political Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Acquittal | 35% | Electoral strengthening of opposition |
| Minor fine | 25% | Continuity in polarization |
| Suspended prison | 30% | Opposition leadership crisis |
| Effective prison | 10% | Massive protests and legislative blockade |
Time as a political weapon
The possible delay of the ruling on presidential impeachment until after March 26 (pointed out by Na Kyung-won, PPP) seeks to:
1. Avoid accusations of judicial coordination
2. Maximize simultaneous media impact
3. Pressure constitutional judges
This "judicial marathon" sets a precedent in Korean democracy, where for the first time both the president and the main opposition leader face parallel processes that will determine the immediate future of the country. Citizens await with expectation a verdict that could redefine the rules of the political game for the next decade.